College football: Can USF score enough to stay with Miami?

South Florida is each the buzz entering an all-Florida clash astatine Miami this weekend, starting 2-0 with upset wins implicit ranked teams.

On insubstantial it looks similar 1 of the champion starts successful programme history. But container scores bash not ever archer the afloat story.

There is much beneath the aboveground of these archetypal 2 wins, and what it reveals could wholly alteration however you spot this squad heading to play the Hurricanes.

No. 18 South Florida Bulls astatine No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, The CW Network

Line: Miami -17.5
Money line: Miami (-800), South Florida (+500)
Over/Under: 56.5 (O -105, U -115)

Why USF's 2-0 commencement looks amended than it is

USF is 2-0 with upset wins implicit No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida, but the commencement looks amended connected insubstantial than it truly is. The Bulls person been surviving disconnected large plays, turnovers and hostile mistakes much than consistent, sustainable football.

Against Boise, USF won 34-7, but the container people tells a antithetic story. Boise really had much archetypal downs and controlled clip of possession. They moved the shot good but mislaid 3 fumbles that killed scoring chances.

USF deed a fewer explosive passes, averaging implicit 10 yards per attempt, but lone managed 15 archetypal downs connected 372 full yards. To me, that says the Bulls are relying connected a fistful of large plays to enactment points connected the board, and erstwhile those plays are not there, they conflict to prolong drives and support the discourtesy moving.

Florida was the aforesaid communicative successful a antithetic way. USF pulled retired an 18-16 win, but Florida wounded itself with 11 penalties, a cardinal interception and missed opportunities successful the reddish zone. Across some games, USF has forced 4 turnovers but has scored zero points disconnected them, which says a batch astir their violative struggles.

The numbers enactment it. USF struggles to prolong drives, has occupation converting connected 3rd down, and the defence is somewhat beneath average. The 2-0 grounds is real, but the dominance is not.

Without those hostile mistakes (Boise adjusting without Ashton Jeanty and Florida showing preseason concerns), this could conscionable arsenic easy beryllium an 0-2 team.

Why Miami is antithetic than Boise State and Florida

Miami is not Boise State oregon Florida. After 1 crippled against Notre Dame, Miami looks similar a complete, balanced and disciplined team, which is thing neither of USF's upset victims could say.

Boise's nonaccomplishment was astir self-destruction, portion Florida's nonaccomplishment was antithetic but conscionable arsenic messy. In some games, USF didn't predominate from commencement to finish; they capitalized connected mistakes.

Miami feels different. Carson Beck is successful his 3rd twelvemonth arsenic a starting quarterback, looks to rebound from his 2024 wounded and successful Week 1 threw for 472 yards and 4 touchdowns against Notre Dame, spreading the shot astir to aggregate weapons, portion Mark Fletcher Jr. added equilibrium with implicit 150 rushing yards. This discourtesy tin bushed you successful much ways than one.

Most importantly, they play cleanable football. Against Notre Dame, Miami had conscionable six penalties and zero turnovers.

Miami tin get downfield, decorativeness successful the reddish portion and support the ball. Unlike Boise State and Florida, the Canes are not apt to manus USF escaped possessions oregon casual scoring opportunities.

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